We are all aware that the British population is expanding and the fact that we have an increasing population should be good news for all education providers, including the independent education sector.  There will indeed be more children but factoring this in to planning your future school strategy should be done with care.

How will population growth affect your catchment? What does your mtm 'Mandarin' say?

As a proportion of the population, children are not increasing as rapidly as the number of people retiring, and growth is projected to be very regional. Some areas are even projected to experience declining populations in the short term. Even if there is projected to be an increase in the child population in your area, the raw data will not be able to tell you whether they will be from the types of families most likely to consider independent education.

There are, however, tools which can combine projected changes in child population with socio-economic indicators. Here at mtmconsulting we have data on population change, household incomes and lifestyles, allowing us to accurately predict the likely effect of this population growth on your recruitment at our fingertips and the expertise to fine tune the information to your individual circumstances. Our ‘Mandarin’ Market and Catchment Area Analysis reports go one step further, factoring in the relative competition from other similar establishments in your area, giving you the most detailed picture of your catchment available today.

If this sounds interesting, give us a buzz and we’ll do our best to help.

Related posts:

1. Population change and effects on schools
2. Blog post – Market segmentation and its value
3. Blog post – The power of friendship networks, and implications for schools

There’s sometimes an odd symmetry in historical coincidences. 2012 will mark the centenary of the most celebrated nautical disaster of modern times, the loss of the Titanic. The Titanic had a sister ship, named the Olympic. And this year will also bring, of course, the Olympic Games to London.

So – Titanic or Olympic – which will prove to be a more apt epithet for the year? A year of celebration and renewed confidence in the future? Or a year when all our confident assumptions about progress and growth hit an iceberg?

We asked an assortment of experts – heads, bursars, journalists, entrepreneurs – for their own forecasts and published their responses in this term’s issue of School Matters, which should have reached schools’ in trays in the last few days.

Unsurprisingly, most took a bleak view of the immediate future for both the economy and for independent schools. Here’s Richard Cairns, headmaster of Brighton College:  “Continued economic gloom in 2012 will see a further flight to quality in the independent sector. Leading schools will  take an ever increasing share of the diminishing pool of parents able to afford independent education while those that fail to innovate and adapt will be forced to merge or go out of business altogether.”

Other heads joined Cairns in foreseeing a “flight to quality”, as did IAPS chief executive David Hanson, who added: “Good schools and in particular, those that are known as a centre for excellence (arts, sport languages, boarding) will buck the recession as report modest growth.  At the same time, schools that are perceived as being less good will experience accelerating decline.”

Wellington’s Master Anthony Seldon and Good School Guide publisher Ralph Lucas both linked their pessimistic outlook for independent schools with a prediction that the best state schools would leap ahead.

“2012 will be hard for the independent sector … The state sector in contrast will forge ahead, with more Academies and Free Schools, putting the independent sector under further pressure,” said Seldon, cheerleader-in-chief for the Government’s Academy project.

Lucas forecast: “There will be growing confidence in the qualities of the best new Free Schools and Academies, and a growing consciousness of the disadvantages that independent schools face in UK university access. Independent schools will need to find new ways to convince parents that they are worth the fees.”

For Mark Semmence, assistant head of Rugby School, “2012 could bring the ‘perfect storm’ for the independent education sector, pushed from one side by an ever worsening economic climate and squeezed from the other by the fast pace of structural change within the state sector.” Independent schools needed to respond, he said, by being more strategically focused with their offer and controlled costs efficiently.

But others took an altogether brighter view.

Andrew Maiden, editor, Funding for Independent Schools magazine, and organiser of the Independent School Awards, said: “The fee-paying independent school sector will be the one bright spark in British education in 2012: the recession has culled the weaker performing schools and the rest of the sector is embracing strategic and financial change,” adding: “Academies/free schools will begin to realise that ‘independence’ also means freedom to fail.”

Taking inspiration from the Olympic theme, Alice Phillips, headmistress of St Catherine’s, Bramley, acknowledged that the challenging economic climate would persist, but “in its midst we must make the most of an international celebration of sport as the UK hosts the Olympics and inspires our wonderful young athletes to achieve PBs of all kinds:  sporting, academic, musical, career, and so on.”

But let’s give the last words to headmaster of The Dragon School, Oxford, John Baugh, whose tour d’horizon took : “Olympic bubble; recession (again); Manchester City; droughts, floods, earthquakes; euro collapse; Andy Murray; Syria; Libya (again); Apple iTV; space tourists; first prep school academy; Orang Utan technically extinct; Iran goes nuclear; honeybee population collapse; the world won’t come to an end on December 21 and 2013 will be a great year.”

Read the predictions in full in mtmconsulting’s School Matters. And make sure your school is ready to face anything by reviewing your strategic plans for the future. Contact us for the most expert help available in the independent sector.

Related posts:

1. Sector Report 2012 trend 1: Academies, free schools and independents
2. New Year Offer! mtm is offering a free initial visit to schools
3. Sector Report 2012 trend 2: recession and the flight to quality

mtmconsulting’s UK Education Sector; Forecasts, Challenges & Opportunities 2012 – 2020 is the authoritative independent commentary for the charitable, for profit and state-funded independent education markets.

Produced by mtmconsulting biannually, this is an objective review of these fast-changing sectors. It includes statistics, trends, forecasts and scenarios, providing a valuable information source for decision makers or those wishing to enter the sectors.

The report is essential reading for Heads, Chief Executives and Governors who need to have an objective review of the sector to inform their strategy and for the increasing number of individuals and organisations who are seeking to enter the market or build on their existing portfolio.

The report is based on qualitative and quantitative surveys and opinion from our panels of experts. It forecasts the prospects for the sector for the next 10 years and presents some visionary scenarios for 2030.

Areas covered include:

Sector overview

• Pupil trends
• Income and expenditure
• Structural trends
• Impact of Government legislation
• Analysis by segment
• Trends in demand for the next ten years
• Analysis of who buys by family type and income
• Demand by age
• Identification of the services that are subject to most significant change
• Coverage of the fast-growing Academies sector (including free schools), school numbers, pupil numbers and current trends.

Forecasts on future demand

• The impact of recession
• Government policy
• Public sector unrest
• Falling affordability
• Impact of independent state-funded Academies, demography & social trends
• Forecasts to 2020 and scenarios to 2030
• Updates on chains and their impact on the sector and school groups to watch.

To order your report, either download the order form, email Barbara Bardick, or telephone 0843 308 7548.

Terms and Conditions
Report purchases are non-refundable. We recommend you read the content pages or index first where available.
All fees are fully inclusive of postage costs where applicable. Hard copies of reports are dispatched by Royal Mail first class post within one week of receiving payment. Copying, forwarding or promotional use of licensed work is strictly prohibited and may result in legal action.

Related posts:

1. Coming soon: The 2012 Education Sector Report
2. Independent Education Sector Report 2007/08
3. Independent Education Sector Report 2010

Last week I was invited to take part in the All-Party Group for Education debate – ‘The changing schools landscape: what can maintained schools, free schools and academies learn from one another?’ It looked like a great opportunity to identify ways in which educationalists could co-operate and exchange expertise, but sadly it turned into an argument between those who want to give comprehensive education more time to succeed and those who run free schools.

The battle between 'comprehensive' and 'free' education continues. . .

Fiona Millar, co-founder (with Melissa Benn and others) of the Local Schools Network, led the attack on free schools, and Adam Dawson, co-founder of the Etz Jewish Primary Free School, responded. Fiona presented the usual arguments questioning the balance of intake into free schools, what she sees as a secretive process of application and lack of accountability.  She wants to see a middle tier, and perhaps a move back towards School Boards, as advocated by Melissa Benn in her recent book ‘School Wars’. Adam Dawson responded, saying that application is a carefully structured process laid down by Government, that free schools have to adhere to the admissions process, and that they are responding to demand for more school places.

Sadly, free schools are political. There are real concerns on the part of those who think that market forces are detrimental, and would prefer some form of control and see free schools as a threat. But there are indications that free schools are raising the game and prompting improvements in areas where they are being established. 

In our region alone, innovative new free schools have started, like the Norwich Free School, which is open 51 weeks of the year with PE facilities provided by Norwich City Football Club. There are also dynamic new schools that have approval to open in Saxmundham and Beccles in 2012, with the aim of raising standards in an area of low aspirations and mediocre academic outcomes.  The free school debate has turned into a battle, but there is an element of detractors protesting too much. However, there is evidence of a groundswell of support for free schools on the part of parents, teachers and pupils. One London free school Head tells me that 5,000 people came to his open day last month, and that he has 400 applications for every teaching post advertised.

The new market in education is here to stay and it looks as if there is no going back. There is certainly much debate, but as Lady Howe said on Wednesday, these are exciting times, and she is much encouraged by the greater involvement by parents, teachers and pupils.

For more information on how mtmconsulting can help your free school, contact us. 

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1. An Oscar for Andrew – Dick Davison attends the Independent School Awards
2. mtm/vwv Autumn Conference Report 2011 – Practical Strategies for a New Education Market
3. “State school pupils ‘do better at university’”? Independents shouldn’t panic!

With the UK heading inexorably, it seems, for another recession and the economic news unremittingly gloomy, we all need a bit of good news.

So full marks to Andrew Maiden, publisher of Funding for Independent Schools (http://www.fismagazine.co.uk), who had the good idea a couple of years ago of launching the sector’s own awards event to give some recognition to enterprise, imagination, energy and leadership in independent schools.

Andrew Maiden's Independent School Awards recognised some key achievements

The second annual Independent School Awards event was held a couple of weeks ago, at the National Motorcycle Museum, Birmingham, and a very upbeat affair it was, celebrating some remarkable achievements.

Like Kilgraston School in Perthshire, for example. Ten years ago Kilgraston, one of that apparently endangered species, the small, rural girls’ boarding school, would have been high on most people’s lists of schools unlikely to survive. When the current principal, Michael Farmer, took over in 2004, the roll stood at an all-time low of just over 200 and the boarding was barely half-full.

Seven years later, low-cost adaptation of existing plant has given the school new facilities, the school is full, with 340 pupils, and has seen an 80% increase in boarding numbers to 150. A worthy winner of the night’s top award, independent school of the year.

Or take New Hall School, in Essex, reported to be the fastest-growing independent school in the country. The first girls’ school to adopt the ‘diamond’ model in admitting boys, New Hall has doubled its roll from 580 to 1,150 in five years – and doubled its boarding numbers too.

What these and the other award-winners have in common is outstanding leadership, vision and the courage to take the long, strategic view when others are content simply to repeat the annual routine. If you are thinking about how to ensure your school survives the next difficult few years, or believe it should be re-shaping itself in response to new demands and expectations, mtmconsulting’s strategic advice can help. We have been supporting schools making these sort of decisions for over a quarter of a century now.

Oh, and an Oscar for Andrew for having such a good idea.

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2. Is your school in a ‘Nappy Valley’?
3. White paper shows recession’s impact on independent school markets

It’s vital to assess the status quo before your school can even think about moving forward, and at mtmconsulting we believe so passionately in the value of incisive market research that we spend much of our time and energy carrying out bespoke survey projects on behalf of schools that are serious about unlocking their future business potential.
But how to ensure that market research really answers those burning questions?

Effictive research requires effective planning

1) Know your objectives at the outset

Identifying the key aims of the market research before the project begins is time well spent. This ensures that the survey can be tailored to meet your school’s needs exactly, and that the results will provide all the information required to make decisions on those anticipated next steps. Once the project has begun it is not possible to add or amend questions without skewing the outcome and rendering it more or less useless.

2) Decide on your sample

Knowing who is to be surveyed is essential if the research is to be formulated to elicit the most useful response. Appropriate phrasing of the questions, the sequence of questions and even whether an incentive might be appreciated all depends on the type of people being asked for their opinions. It’s worth bearing in mind that a school’s current parents are always more willing to share their views than parents who elected for their children not to join the school. Typically response rates of online surveys are around 40% for current parents while non-joiner levels hover around 10%.

3) Keep it brief

Avoid the over-long questionnaire, which is likely to bore your respondent and perhaps discourage them from sticking it out to the bitter the end. Once the objectives and the sample are set, it’s possible to keep the number of questions to the bare minimum. Fewer than 50 questions is recommended to ensure your respondent remains engaged and willing to share throughout.

4) Keep it relevant

Potential parents are not likely to know about the quality of teaching at your school, nor how good the catering is, so don’t ask them. Similarly, the parents of pupils who have left or are leaving the school after seven or 14 years are unlikely to remember their specific reasons for choosing the school, or why they opted for yours over the competition.

5) Know who will use the output

We regularly undertake research on behalf of one department, only to hear that the output has been used by another. For example, mandarin catchment areas analysis is often commissioned by the marketing department, however the bursar finds it most helpful when planning budgets. It is useful to identify which departments are likely to benefit from the results of your school’s market research, as this may inform the way we formulate our report and analyse the issues that arise. Our aim is to make sure that the market research proves to be of the utmost value to your school and will form the basis of its future success.

I’d love to hear how your school makes the most of its market research – please email me on jleggett@mtmconsulting.co.uk

Contact mtmconsulting to find out more about our how our extensive research services can benefit you.

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2. Marketing: making the right appointment
3. 5 research tips for new Headteachers

You can read a summary of Sir Ewan Harper’s remarkable account of how the United Learning Trust was transformed from a small and struggling independent school group into a thriving organisation, with more than double the pupil numbers, and went on to become the nation’s biggest sponsor of Academies.

Other topics covered include the opportunities and pitfalls of extending your school age range, a summary of the mtmconsulting UK Education Sector Report 2012 – 2020: Forecasts, Challenges and Opportunities and Tom Packer’s account of his white knuckle ride through the process of opening the West London Free School.

Alternatively, download the full report here.

Date for your diary – the 2012 Practical Strategies Conference will be held on 18 September, once again at the Institute of Directors, London, W1.

Related posts:

1. The 2009 mtmconsulting / Veale Wasbrough Conference: Practical Strategies for Challenging Times
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3. Headlines from mtm’s Practical Strategies Annual Conference,

It’s easy to dismiss it as schoolgate tittle-tattle, but word-of-mouth is a very powerful marketing tool among parents – and schools ignore it at their peril.

All the glossy prospectuses and snappy websites in the world might not make up for the fact that Auntie Pat’s hairdresser’s niece had a terrible time at St Griselda’s, or nice little Freddie down the road left Newtown College with a crack habit and no GCSEs.

And the education watchdog Ofsted has just brought home-time gossip into the 21st century by launching a website that invites parents to share opinions on their child’s state school with the entire online world. Independent schools are not ‘currently’ included, but once it gets established, the pressure may mount on ISI to follow suit.

Contributions to the Parent View site are anonymous and the parents taking part are asked to choose their responses, ranging from ‘strongly agree’ to ‘strongly disagree’, to 12 statements on the issues that keep parents awake at night when choosing the right school for their offspring. These include ‘my child is happy at this school’, ‘my child feels safe at this school’, ‘my child is taught well at this school’, ‘this school deals effectively with bullying’ and, crucially, ‘I would recommend this school to another parent’.

There is no space for free text (or griping) and the simple answers can be collated and evaluated easily to help parents using the site to compare levels of satisfaction between the schools they’re considering. The results will also be used to prompt Ofsted into action if any school seems to be getting more than its fair share of negative feedback.

Some teaching bodies are greeting news of the site’s launch with trepidation, however, their main concern being that it could be open to abuse by parents with an educational axe to grind. Ofsted insists though that its aim is to give parents a stronger voice and to pool their collective experience, which is undoubtedly something they are already adept at doing, if not quite so efficiently.

Indeed, at mtm, we carry out more than 40 parental surveys each year, and every parent interviewed admits to asking friends, colleagues, neighbours or family members for their opinion on the schools they have in mind for their son or daughter. One less than favourable word can make them think twice about applying.

So how to keep your current parents close? Communication is the key to the retention and satisfaction of parents and their children. Make sure they’re in the loop with regular and engaging correspondence and newsletters, swift responses to their enquiries and respectful and sensitive handling of any issues that may arise – and today’s parents may well put in a good word for your school with the parents of tomorrow, whether at the schoolgate, the village shop, the water cooler or in cyberspace.

For bespoke advice on keeping your school’s current and prospective parents happy, contact mtmconsulting.

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1. Blog post – a word in your ear
2. mtm announces survey of how parents pay independent school fees
3. School Fees and How Parents Pay Them

With the economic climate still far from perfect and increased competition emerging from the state sector’s Acadamies and Free Schools, it is more important than ever for you to up-skill your research and marketing strategy to support development of your school.

mtmconsulting’s Practical Research and Marketing Intelligence Seminar will provide you with the latest sector intelligence and examples of the best marketing strategies and campaigns to help enable you maximise your budget and stand out from the crowd.

The programme includes:

•  UK Independent Education Market: Forecasts, Challenges and Opportunities, 2012-2020

Highlights from mtmconsulting’s latest report on market developments in the UK education sector.

*Pupil and financial trends
* The impact of Academies, Free-schools and the shake- up of the state sector
*What does this mean for your school?

•  Re-branding Your School
•  Getting the best out of Independent School Guides and Websites.

 The inside track on the Good School’s Guide, Tatler etc. How they operate and the pitfalls to avoid.

•  The Winning Formula. What work’s, what doesn’t and the secret of success

Price £150 inc vat per person. Price includes lunch.
Location: The Cavalry Club. 127 Piccadilly, London W1

For programme of the day’s events, please click here.

To book your place on this vital course either download the registration form, contact Barbara Badrick on 0843 308 7548 or email bbadrick@mtmconsulting.co.uk.

Terms & Conditions

Hotel and travel costs are not included in the event fees. Substitutions may be allowed at any time, but please let us know.

All cancellations must be made in writing to office@mtmconsulting.co.uk  28 days before the event upon which we will refund to the value of 25% of the fee. Unfortunately any cancellation within less than 28 days before the event is non-refundable.

mtmconsulting reserves the right to alter the location or content of the event. Only one promotional code may be used per purchase.

mtmconsulting reserve the right to not accept orders and refuse right of entry to an event.  In such cases, the full amount paid (if any) will be refunded. Only one promotional code may be used per purchase.

Related posts:

1. The Proprietorial Schools’ Forum – Spring Forum
2. mtm/vwv Autumn Conference Report 2011 – Practical Strategies for a New Education Market
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The number of boarders in independent schools has fallen dramatically over the last 30 years, from 120,000 in 1981 to just under 72,000 in 2011. As a proportion of all independent school pupils this represents a fall from 22% to 12%. One of the causes of this long-term decline was the fact that robust boarding regimes (especially for boys) came to be regarded with both distaste and suspicion by many mothers. Negative media comment, particularly during the 1980s, did not help and this has continued, on and off, since (such as the references to ‘Boarding School Syndrome’ during the summer of 2011).

Since 2007 rolls have been on the rise thanks to growing numbers of boarders from overseas and whose parents serve in HM Forces. In fact, since 2007 the number from these sources has grown by an estimated 8,000 and this has more than made up for the estimated loss of 6,000 boarders who live in the UK. In 2011 compared to a year earlier we estimate that there were 500 more boarders from HM Forces families and there was a rise of 1,400 non-British boarders whose parents live overseas. But the biggest rise was the estimated 1,800 increase in the number of British boarders whose parents live overseas.

These trends mean that pupils whose parents live in the UK now account for 38% of boarders, down from 51% in 2001. Non-British pupils whose parents live overseas have risen from a 29% share a decade ago to 36% in 2011.

mtmconsulting’s latest report “The UK Education Sector; Forecasts, Challenges & Opportunities 2012-2020” due to be released in September, delivers essential information outlining the strategic development of UK boarders market. Details include, sector forecast to 2020, opportunities of growth from the overseas market and what the potential impact may be following changes to HM Forces’ Continuity of Education Allowance.

Gavin Humphries, Head of Research at mtmconsulting will be presenting findings from the report at the “Practical Strategies for the New Education Market” one day conference on Tuesday 13th September, Institute of Directors, Pall Mall, London.

Pre order the report today by calling +44 (0)1502 722 787.

Related posts:

1. Sector Report 2012 trend 1: Academies, free schools and independents
2. Sector Report 2012 trend 2: recession and the flight to quality
3. The decline of the British boarder?