We are all aware that the British population is expanding and the fact that we have an increasing population should be good news for all education providers, including the independent education sector.  There will indeed be more children but factoring this in to planning your future school strategy should be done with care.

How will population growth affect your catchment? What does your mtm 'Mandarin' say?

As a proportion of the population, children are not increasing as rapidly as the number of people retiring, and growth is projected to be very regional. Some areas are even projected to experience declining populations in the short term. Even if there is projected to be an increase in the child population in your area, the raw data will not be able to tell you whether they will be from the types of families most likely to consider independent education.

There are, however, tools which can combine projected changes in child population with socio-economic indicators. Here at mtmconsulting we have data on population change, household incomes and lifestyles, allowing us to accurately predict the likely effect of this population growth on your recruitment at our fingertips and the expertise to fine tune the information to your individual circumstances. Our ‘Mandarin’ Market and Catchment Area Analysis reports go one step further, factoring in the relative competition from other similar establishments in your area, giving you the most detailed picture of your catchment available today.

If this sounds interesting, give us a buzz and we’ll do our best to help.

Related posts:

1. Population change and effects on schools
2. Blog post – Market segmentation and its value
3. Blog post – The power of friendship networks, and implications for schools

There’s sometimes an odd symmetry in historical coincidences. 2012 will mark the centenary of the most celebrated nautical disaster of modern times, the loss of the Titanic. The Titanic had a sister ship, named the Olympic. And this year will also bring, of course, the Olympic Games to London.

So – Titanic or Olympic – which will prove to be a more apt epithet for the year? A year of celebration and renewed confidence in the future? Or a year when all our confident assumptions about progress and growth hit an iceberg?

We asked an assortment of experts – heads, bursars, journalists, entrepreneurs – for their own forecasts and published their responses in this term’s issue of School Matters, which should have reached schools’ in trays in the last few days.

Unsurprisingly, most took a bleak view of the immediate future for both the economy and for independent schools. Here’s Richard Cairns, headmaster of Brighton College:  “Continued economic gloom in 2012 will see a further flight to quality in the independent sector. Leading schools will  take an ever increasing share of the diminishing pool of parents able to afford independent education while those that fail to innovate and adapt will be forced to merge or go out of business altogether.”

Other heads joined Cairns in foreseeing a “flight to quality”, as did IAPS chief executive David Hanson, who added: “Good schools and in particular, those that are known as a centre for excellence (arts, sport languages, boarding) will buck the recession as report modest growth.  At the same time, schools that are perceived as being less good will experience accelerating decline.”

Wellington’s Master Anthony Seldon and Good School Guide publisher Ralph Lucas both linked their pessimistic outlook for independent schools with a prediction that the best state schools would leap ahead.

“2012 will be hard for the independent sector … The state sector in contrast will forge ahead, with more Academies and Free Schools, putting the independent sector under further pressure,” said Seldon, cheerleader-in-chief for the Government’s Academy project.

Lucas forecast: “There will be growing confidence in the qualities of the best new Free Schools and Academies, and a growing consciousness of the disadvantages that independent schools face in UK university access. Independent schools will need to find new ways to convince parents that they are worth the fees.”

For Mark Semmence, assistant head of Rugby School, “2012 could bring the ‘perfect storm’ for the independent education sector, pushed from one side by an ever worsening economic climate and squeezed from the other by the fast pace of structural change within the state sector.” Independent schools needed to respond, he said, by being more strategically focused with their offer and controlled costs efficiently.

But others took an altogether brighter view.

Andrew Maiden, editor, Funding for Independent Schools magazine, and organiser of the Independent School Awards, said: “The fee-paying independent school sector will be the one bright spark in British education in 2012: the recession has culled the weaker performing schools and the rest of the sector is embracing strategic and financial change,” adding: “Academies/free schools will begin to realise that ‘independence’ also means freedom to fail.”

Taking inspiration from the Olympic theme, Alice Phillips, headmistress of St Catherine’s, Bramley, acknowledged that the challenging economic climate would persist, but “in its midst we must make the most of an international celebration of sport as the UK hosts the Olympics and inspires our wonderful young athletes to achieve PBs of all kinds:  sporting, academic, musical, career, and so on.”

But let’s give the last words to headmaster of The Dragon School, Oxford, John Baugh, whose tour d’horizon took : “Olympic bubble; recession (again); Manchester City; droughts, floods, earthquakes; euro collapse; Andy Murray; Syria; Libya (again); Apple iTV; space tourists; first prep school academy; Orang Utan technically extinct; Iran goes nuclear; honeybee population collapse; the world won’t come to an end on December 21 and 2013 will be a great year.”

Read the predictions in full in mtmconsulting’s School Matters. And make sure your school is ready to face anything by reviewing your strategic plans for the future. Contact us for the most expert help available in the independent sector.

Related posts:

1. Sector Report 2012 trend 1: Academies, free schools and independents
2. New Year Offer! mtm is offering a free initial visit to schools
3. Sector Report 2012 trend 2: recession and the flight to quality

It’s a new year and schools’ marketers’ thoughts turn to the Open Day season, and how to encourage potential students through your doors and onto your roll for the coming September.

This is your chance to really sell your school – the pay-off for the past year’s promotional activity (and budget) that has made sure your school’s name is familiar to those families you are most keen to attract. Now is the time to convert that raised awareness into full classrooms, and the open day is a vital step that warrants careful planning.

It’s not an easy task, but the aim of the open day is to give visiting families a snapshot of your school – its ethos, its approach to the academic and co-curricular programmes and extra activities, as well as a feel for the school campus, the learning areas and resources, dining hall, boarding if applicable, outside space and even the drop-off and car parking arrangements. Parents’ eyes and ears are open and in fact Mtm’s parental research shows that most parents make up their minds about the suitability of a school for their son or daughter on the strength of their own first-hand experience of the school. The key is to be co-ordinated and to plan well in advance.

Booking ahead to shout about your open day to the general public in the local press is of course essential, but it’s also worthwhile dropping a personalised line in plenty of time to the parents who are already on the school’s radar – those who may have requested a prospectus over the past year, whose child may have come along to an activity day held at your school, or the members of clubs and societies with whom your school has established a tie. Keeping good contact information throughout the year is crucial as these families are likely to be your school’s target market.

Ads and invitations must always make clear the schedule for your open day. If you’re planning a welcome by the head perhaps, or talks by members of staff and pupils throughout the day, then the timings for these must be publicised well in advance so that parents do not miss out. Alternatively, a less structured day should also be flagged up – parents may be disenchanted to find that they have made an early start for no reason.

It’s likely that a certain amount of orchestration will be necessary if visitors are to leave your open day with the desired impression of your school. Changes to the timetable might be required to avoid the less spectator-friendly activities and perhaps substitute for those your school is known for, or ideally offers uniquely in the area.

Briefing the main players in your open day is vital. Speakers, young and old, may benefit from guidance and ideally your approval of their script to make sure they are all ‘on message’. Student tour guides should be thoroughly prepared, not just with recommended routes, but also the answers to any questions parents are likely to pose, as well as information on your school’s particular areas of pride to drop into the conversation whenever appropriate. Presentation is also an important matter to parents – your older students are a peek into their younger child’s future, so make sure every pupil looks like a young person a parent could be proud of.

Vitally, all involved must know the arrangements for recording visiting parents’ contact details, so that their positive impression at open day can lead to the registration of their child to join your school.

To find out how mtm can help your school plan for an effective open day, just call 0843 308 7548

Related posts:

1. Planning to open a new school?
2. Open days: mtm asks “how are they working for your school’s marketing?”
3. Part 1: Seven Stages of Marketing Planning in your School

mtmconsulting’s UK Education Sector; Forecasts, Challenges & Opportunities 2012 – 2020 is the authoritative independent commentary for the charitable, for profit and state-funded independent education markets.

Produced by mtmconsulting biannually, this is an objective review of these fast-changing sectors. It includes statistics, trends, forecasts and scenarios, providing a valuable information source for decision makers or those wishing to enter the sectors.

The report is essential reading for Heads, Chief Executives and Governors who need to have an objective review of the sector to inform their strategy and for the increasing number of individuals and organisations who are seeking to enter the market or build on their existing portfolio.

The report is based on qualitative and quantitative surveys and opinion from our panels of experts. It forecasts the prospects for the sector for the next 10 years and presents some visionary scenarios for 2030.

Areas covered include:

Sector overview

• Pupil trends
• Income and expenditure
• Structural trends
• Impact of Government legislation
• Analysis by segment
• Trends in demand for the next ten years
• Analysis of who buys by family type and income
• Demand by age
• Identification of the services that are subject to most significant change
• Coverage of the fast-growing Academies sector (including free schools), school numbers, pupil numbers and current trends.

Forecasts on future demand

• The impact of recession
• Government policy
• Public sector unrest
• Falling affordability
• Impact of independent state-funded Academies, demography & social trends
• Forecasts to 2020 and scenarios to 2030
• Updates on chains and their impact on the sector and school groups to watch.

To order your report, either download the order form, email Barbara Bardick, or telephone 0843 308 7548.

Terms and Conditions
Report purchases are non-refundable. We recommend you read the content pages or index first where available.
All fees are fully inclusive of postage costs where applicable. Hard copies of reports are dispatched by Royal Mail first class post within one week of receiving payment. Copying, forwarding or promotional use of licensed work is strictly prohibited and may result in legal action.

Related posts:

1. Coming soon: The 2012 Education Sector Report
2. Independent Education Sector Report 2007/08
3. Independent Education Sector Report 2010

You can read a summary of Sir Ewan Harper’s remarkable account of how the United Learning Trust was transformed from a small and struggling independent school group into a thriving organisation, with more than double the pupil numbers, and went on to become the nation’s biggest sponsor of Academies.

Other topics covered include the opportunities and pitfalls of extending your school age range, a summary of the mtmconsulting UK Education Sector Report 2012 – 2020: Forecasts, Challenges and Opportunities and Tom Packer’s account of his white knuckle ride through the process of opening the West London Free School.

Alternatively, download the full report here.

Date for your diary – the 2012 Practical Strategies Conference will be held on 18 September, once again at the Institute of Directors, London, W1.

Related posts:

1. The 2009 mtmconsulting / Veale Wasbrough Conference: Practical Strategies for Challenging Times
2. mtm/vwv Annual Practical Strategies Conference 2012
3. Headlines from mtm’s Practical Strategies Annual Conference,

The Proprietorial Schools’ Forum has proved highly popular since its inception in September 2008. The Forum was established in response to the demand for an event at which private owners of schools could meet to discuss exclusively the issues which concern them. The 2011-12 programme has been put together with the same two aims that have always underpinned the Forum: to offer stimulating presentations on relevant topics and to respond to feedback from previous events.

March’s event investigates the importance of accessibility to your school, focusing on how to set up and run your own bus service, and a guide to formulating a successful marketing strategy.

Programme

09.30        Coffee & registration

09.45        Insight into buses - Linda Howard, Senior Associate at Minnerva Transport Consultancy

Accessibility is key in pupil recruitment.  Linda will talk about current legislation and provide practical tops on how to manage school transport.

10.35        Coffee Break

10.55        Formulating a marketing strategy

Our guide for your school, presented by Melanie Tucker, founder and Principal at mtmconsulting

11.40        All you ever wanted to know about selling your school – Peers Carter, school proprietor and founder-partner of the School Transfer Company

Peers draws some lessons from more than 25 years of bringing together buyers and sellers of schools.

12.00        Proprietors’ discussion forum

12.45        Drinks, buffet lunch, networking

14.30        Close

The event will be held at our usual venue of The Cavalry and Guards Club, 127 Piccadilly, London W1. Please contact Barbara Badrick to book your place, or download the registration form.

Terms & Conditions

Hotel and travel costs are not included in the event fees. Substitutions may be allowed at any time, but please let us know.

All cancellations must be made in writing to office@mtmconsulting.co.uk  28 days before the event upon which we will refund to the value of 25% of the fee. Unfortunately any cancellation within less than 28 days before the event is non-refundable.

mtmconsulting reserves the right to alter the location or content of the event. Only one promotional code may be used per purchase.

mtmconsulting reserve the right to not accept orders and refuse right of entry to an event.  In such cases, the full amount paid (if any) will be refunded. Only one promotional code may be used per purchase.

Related posts:

1. Proprietorial Schools Forum dates announced
2. Proprietorial Schools Forum: September event
3. Proprietorial Schools Forum

The number of boarders in independent schools has fallen dramatically over the last 30 years, from 120,000 in 1981 to just under 72,000 in 2011. As a proportion of all independent school pupils this represents a fall from 22% to 12%. One of the causes of this long-term decline was the fact that robust boarding regimes (especially for boys) came to be regarded with both distaste and suspicion by many mothers. Negative media comment, particularly during the 1980s, did not help and this has continued, on and off, since (such as the references to ‘Boarding School Syndrome’ during the summer of 2011).

Since 2007 rolls have been on the rise thanks to growing numbers of boarders from overseas and whose parents serve in HM Forces. In fact, since 2007 the number from these sources has grown by an estimated 8,000 and this has more than made up for the estimated loss of 6,000 boarders who live in the UK. In 2011 compared to a year earlier we estimate that there were 500 more boarders from HM Forces families and there was a rise of 1,400 non-British boarders whose parents live overseas. But the biggest rise was the estimated 1,800 increase in the number of British boarders whose parents live overseas.

These trends mean that pupils whose parents live in the UK now account for 38% of boarders, down from 51% in 2001. Non-British pupils whose parents live overseas have risen from a 29% share a decade ago to 36% in 2011.

mtmconsulting’s latest report “The UK Education Sector; Forecasts, Challenges & Opportunities 2012-2020” due to be released in September, delivers essential information outlining the strategic development of UK boarders market. Details include, sector forecast to 2020, opportunities of growth from the overseas market and what the potential impact may be following changes to HM Forces’ Continuity of Education Allowance.

Gavin Humphries, Head of Research at mtmconsulting will be presenting findings from the report at the “Practical Strategies for the New Education Market” one day conference on Tuesday 13th September, Institute of Directors, Pall Mall, London.

Pre order the report today by calling +44 (0)1502 722 787.

Related posts:

1. Sector Report 2012 trend 1: Academies, free schools and independents
2. Sector Report 2012 trend 2: recession and the flight to quality
3. The decline of the British boarder?

Ahead of the launch of our 2012 Education Sector Report in September (available to order now with advance discount rate), over the Summer we will be looking at several of the key trends the report will explore. In this second trending article, our Head of Strategy,  Dick Davison looks at a flight to quality in education in the wake of recession.

As the British economy bumps and scrapes along the bottom of what might or might not be a recovery from the longest and deepest recession in living memory, everyone is looking for signs and portents to indicate the way things really are going.

So when that touchstone of the High Street, Marks & Spencer reported its second quarter figures recently, the pundits fell on them with unusual zeal. And what they showed did seem to be genuinely interesting. While like-for-like sales growth in general merchandise remained flat, food sales were up 3.3%.

The significance of that, for some commentators, is that M&S occupies two different market segments: for general merchandise, especially clothing, it is firmly rooted in the middle of the market but its food retailing is nearer the top of the range. So, they seemed to suggest, conditions remain pretty bleak for the general consumer, but the more affluent are more confident.

There are, of course, different interpretations. One is that, even in a recession, our taste for an occasional treat remains undiminished and M&S, with its successful “dine-in” offers, had tapped very successfully into that demand.

Be that as it may, something similar seemed to be indicated by the 2011 ISC Census of independent schools. While overall numbers were slightly down, by 0.2% – and the fact that the reduction was so slight, despite the economic turbulence of the last three years, might be taken as another illustration of the “rich are still spending” interpretation – there were some significant differences between types of schools.

Numbers were actually slightly UP in HMC schools, which include many of those schools which are regarded as market leaders in their locality or market segment, whether it be the most prominent academic day school in town or a national-brand leading boarding school. This is often taken as evidence of the “flight to quality” which seems to be one of the characteristics of hard times – when people feel they have to spend, despite the economic circumstances, they make more sure than usual that they are buying the best quality.

Sharpening the pencil? With the impact of recession focusing families' minds and budgets, it appears that schools that can demonstrate real value and quality are proving more successful.

But what is “quality” in the independent sector? Because the highest percentage rise in numbers – 0.5% – was in SHMIS schools, many of them less glamorous and less well-known schools, often of modest size and often flourishing alongside bigger and more prominent neighbours.

This emphasises that what consumers – in this case parents – are looking for is not just prestige, but real value for money. There is no sign yet of parents turning away from the real advantages that an independent education offers their children but more and more indications that they are becoming ever more pragmatic and critical.

Our next trending article will look at the national birthrate and the opportunities and threats this may pose to all schools.

To view details of the forthcoming 2012 Sector Report please click here.  

To receive the next article automatically in an email, please fill in your details below.

Related posts:

1. Sector Report 2012 trend 1: Academies, free schools and independents
2. UK Sector Report 2012. Trend 3. Opportunities to Boost UK Boarding
3. Coming soon: The 2012 Education Sector Report

Ahead of the launch of our 2012 Education Sector Report in September (available to order now with advance discount rate), over the Summer we will be looking at five of the key trends the report will explore. In this first trending article, our Principal Melanie Tucker looks at Academies, Free Schools and the impact on the independent sector.

David Cameron wants his education policy to be about placing rocket-boosters under the City Academy programme rather than helping a minority of middle class people escape the state system. Michael Gove, as we know, has a passion to establish free schools. Taken together, these have resulted in fundamental changes to the dynamics of the education market place.

The number of state funded independent academies grew from 203 in May 2010 to 629 in 2011, educating some 6.9% of the school age population. This is set to increase very considerably if the list of schools that have declared an intention to become an academy is realised.

The academies program has grown dramatically over the past twelve months

There are far fewer Free Schools at present. We estimate that just nine will open in 2011. There are 30-40 already in the pipeline and quite well advanced in the process to open in 2012. In addition, we estimate there are in the region of 280 new applications for opening in 2012 that are not yet in the public domain. However, many of these will be weeded out in the competitive tendering process in August this year. How much of a force they are will depend on how quickly the planning regulations are eased, initial funding sorted out and whether the Government will allow them make a profit. If Sweden is anything to go by, it took two or three years to get the ball to rolling but when it did there was an avalanche in the number of free schools.

But what is the impact on fee paying independent schools? There is no doubt that there is more competition to recruit pupils. A drive round any city centre will show state funded schools visibly competing for students with banners and more overt advertising. The fee paying independent sector is used to competing for pupils and it has developed some quite sophisticated systems for pupil recruitment, but one can’t help thinking that some schools will have to raise their game. Indeed, a poll of 31 sector leaders to inform our last Sector Report found that a substantial – and increasing – amount of them felt that a growth in good state schools would impact on independent pupil rolls.  

Our research found a growing expectation that good state school provision could impact on independent school rolls in the future

It was always a risky business making predictions about the independent fee paying sector as a whole, and this remains the case. The truth is that ’the future’ for any school depends on the type of school and where it is. Strong day schools in economically buoyant areas and top notch boarding schools will be least affected, but it is quite possible that mid-range schools with weaker business models in less buoyant areas could see some 15-20% of their pupils heading towards Academies and Free Schools, especially as mid range schools often have significantly higher numbers of middle income parents who are ‘escapees’ from poorly performing state schools, especially at 11+.

Some critics point to the lack of consistent evidence that academies are achieving the predicted improvements. Others are sceptical about the ability of free school groups, doing their business planning round the Aga, to run successful schools. Nevertheless, there is much more of a market in education than is often realised, and if the perception is that state funded independent schools are working well, it will impact on fee paying schools.

The net result is that these reforms will force some improvements in the state sector but they will also keep the fee paying independent sector on its toes. Nothing like a good bit of competition to raise the game.

Our next trending article will look at how the recession has reinforced the need for service and education quality in schools. This article will be live on our website on 25th July.

To view details of the forthcoming 2012 Sector Report please click here.  

To receive the next article automatically in an email, please fill in your details below.

Related posts:

1. Sector Report 2012 trend 2: recession and the flight to quality
2. Gove strives for ‘free’ schools but what impact on independents?
3. UK Sector Report 2012. Trend 3. Opportunities to Boost UK Boarding

It looks as if the spirit of the education entrepreneur was alive and well at the Sunday Times Festival of Education at Wellington College last weekend. Speakers ranged from big names in education to some well known personalities including Sir Bob Geldof, who called it ‘Glastonbury for intellectuals.’ Without the mud we hope!

Interestingly, Joel Klein, head of the educational division of News Corporation, felt strongly that the education system had pandered too long to the interests of teachers and bureaucrats, and wanted to see private companies having an impact on school improvement.

Reaching for the skies? Educational groups are increasingly keen to take advantage of entrepreneurial opportinities open to them.

This particularly resonates with our thinking. It’s clear to us that private companies, proprietors of fee paying independent schools, private individuals, and educational groups have been keen for some time to make the best of the entrepreneurial opportunities open to them. We identified several opportunities in our Independent Education Sector Report in 2010.

The new 2011 edition, out in September will include trends in independent fee paying schools (charities and proprietorial)  and be enlarged to include state funded independent schools (academies and free schools). Please click here for details of the education report and our early booking discount.

Related posts:

1. mtm is featured in Education Investor
2. Coming soon: The 2012 Education Sector Report
3. Who buys independent education?