There’s sometimes an odd symmetry in historical coincidences. 2012 will mark the centenary of the most celebrated nautical disaster of modern times, the loss of the Titanic. The Titanic had a sister ship, named the Olympic. And this year will also bring, of course, the Olympic Games to London.

So – Titanic or Olympic – which will prove to be a more apt epithet for the year? A year of celebration and renewed confidence in the future? Or a year when all our confident assumptions about progress and growth hit an iceberg?

We asked an assortment of experts – heads, bursars, journalists, entrepreneurs – for their own forecasts and published their responses in this term’s issue of School Matters, which should have reached schools’ in trays in the last few days.

Unsurprisingly, most took a bleak view of the immediate future for both the economy and for independent schools. Here’s Richard Cairns, headmaster of Brighton College:  “Continued economic gloom in 2012 will see a further flight to quality in the independent sector. Leading schools will  take an ever increasing share of the diminishing pool of parents able to afford independent education while those that fail to innovate and adapt will be forced to merge or go out of business altogether.”

Other heads joined Cairns in foreseeing a “flight to quality”, as did IAPS chief executive David Hanson, who added: “Good schools and in particular, those that are known as a centre for excellence (arts, sport languages, boarding) will buck the recession as report modest growth.  At the same time, schools that are perceived as being less good will experience accelerating decline.”

Wellington’s Master Anthony Seldon and Good School Guide publisher Ralph Lucas both linked their pessimistic outlook for independent schools with a prediction that the best state schools would leap ahead.

“2012 will be hard for the independent sector … The state sector in contrast will forge ahead, with more Academies and Free Schools, putting the independent sector under further pressure,” said Seldon, cheerleader-in-chief for the Government’s Academy project.

Lucas forecast: “There will be growing confidence in the qualities of the best new Free Schools and Academies, and a growing consciousness of the disadvantages that independent schools face in UK university access. Independent schools will need to find new ways to convince parents that they are worth the fees.”

For Mark Semmence, assistant head of Rugby School, “2012 could bring the ‘perfect storm’ for the independent education sector, pushed from one side by an ever worsening economic climate and squeezed from the other by the fast pace of structural change within the state sector.” Independent schools needed to respond, he said, by being more strategically focused with their offer and controlled costs efficiently.

But others took an altogether brighter view.

Andrew Maiden, editor, Funding for Independent Schools magazine, and organiser of the Independent School Awards, said: “The fee-paying independent school sector will be the one bright spark in British education in 2012: the recession has culled the weaker performing schools and the rest of the sector is embracing strategic and financial change,” adding: “Academies/free schools will begin to realise that ‘independence’ also means freedom to fail.”

Taking inspiration from the Olympic theme, Alice Phillips, headmistress of St Catherine’s, Bramley, acknowledged that the challenging economic climate would persist, but “in its midst we must make the most of an international celebration of sport as the UK hosts the Olympics and inspires our wonderful young athletes to achieve PBs of all kinds:  sporting, academic, musical, career, and so on.”

But let’s give the last words to headmaster of The Dragon School, Oxford, John Baugh, whose tour d’horizon took : “Olympic bubble; recession (again); Manchester City; droughts, floods, earthquakes; euro collapse; Andy Murray; Syria; Libya (again); Apple iTV; space tourists; first prep school academy; Orang Utan technically extinct; Iran goes nuclear; honeybee population collapse; the world won’t come to an end on December 21 and 2013 will be a great year.”

Read the predictions in full in mtmconsulting’s School Matters. And make sure your school is ready to face anything by reviewing your strategic plans for the future. Contact us for the most expert help available in the independent sector.

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It is one of the most remarkable transformations to take place in the independent sector in the last 20 years. How did a dwindling group of seven mainly girls’ independent schools, some of them near the brink of closure, turn itself into a flourishing powerhouse, with ten independent schools (and more than double the number of pupils) and, with 20 Academies, the largest single sponsor in the Government’s Academy programme?

The story of the then Church Schools Company’s metamorphosis into the United Church Schools’ Trust and its sister United Learning Trust has not been told fully in public before. But the man who is more than anyone responsible for the transformation, Sir Ewan Harper, outlined the vision and the strategy which underpinned it in the keynote address at the annual strategy conference hosted in London by mtmconsulting and Veale Wasbrough Vizards.

What emerged was a compelling blend of hard-headed business planning and a mission informed by firm Christian principle, which should inspire any school leader trying to square the circle of public benefit and a viable business model.

The Church Schools Company was turned round by an unsentimental approach to viable mergers, creating strong new schools in areas where the market was robust, but the existing schools either wrongly configured or unable to expand. The involvement in the Academy programme came later and sprang from an initial chance encounter and the need to answer the question, which Sir Ewan urged all the delegates to address: “If our founders were alive today, what would they do?”

Sir Ewan’s was just one of a series of informative sessions which kept nearly 150 delegates from schools of all kinds in rapt attention throughout the “Practical Strategies for the Changing Education Market” conference at the Institute of Directors. A panel comprising Christopher Ray, High Master of Manchester Grammar School, Frances King, Headmistress of Roedean, Adrian Richardson, Principal of the Cothill Educational Trust, and Richard Fenwick, Headmaster of Hazlegrove, debated differing approaches to the increasingly important issue of changing a school’s age range.

And Gavin Humphries, mtmconsulting’s head of research, unveiled the third edition of The mtmconsulting Independent Sector Report, with its combination of comprehensive analysis of sector trends and future forecasts. Add to that a range of practical seminar sessions of legal, marketing and strategic issues – including a vibrant and challenging workshop on digital and social media marketing for schools – and you will know that it’s well worth looking out for the conference report, which will soon be sent to schools.

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The School Matters newsletter covers sector-wide trends, independent schools marketing and education business strategy and our own research for schools, as well as carrying details of mtmconsulting’s events, news and special offers.

Previous editions of the newsletter are available to download below.

mtm School Matters Issue 1 – April ’09 [pdf, 418kb]

mtm School Matters Issue 2 – Sept ’09 [pdf, 1,573kb]

mtm School Matters Issue 3 – Jan ’10 [pdf, 818kb]

mtm School Matters Issue 04 – April ’10 [pdf, 1,514kb]

mtm School Matters Issue 05 - September ’10 [pdf, 3mb]

mtm School Matters Issue 06 – January ’11 [pdf, 2,380kb]

mtm School Matters Issue 07 - April ’11 [pdf, 588kb]

If you would like to be added to our mailing list for the newsletter please contact mtmconsulting.

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This issue provides a great range of content and debate related to school business strategies, school marketing and promotion, the future of the independent schools sector and our forthcoming education conferences.

Content includes:

- Ground breaking analysis of how the latest recession is likely to affect independent school rolls and how it will differ from the last recession in the 1990s

- Introductions to mtm’s newest consultants: Peter Blair and Lindsey Kavanagh

- Review of the critical value of contingency planning in schools

- Considerations for making your school’s marketing budget go further this year

- Assessment of the impact of the coalition’s free schools policies on the independent education sector

- Details of two fantastic new seminars from mtmconsulting

The newsletter can be viewed online, or alternatively please contact mtm to request a hard copy.

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The most important issue facing independent schools as business is affordability. With fees having risen by more than both price and earnings inflation for almost every one of the last 30 years, the question of how parents can afford to meet the increasing real cost of school fees becomes ever more pressing.

Following our 2007 School Fees Payment Survey, our new report School Fees and How Parents Pay Them (2010), based on responses from 2,500 fee-paying parents, show the spread of parental incomes across the sector and the scale of financial commitment that parents make to their children’s education.

Essential reading for independent school heads, bursars and marketing managers, the full report is free to download or view online.

Please fill in the form below  to receive an email containing a link to  read or download School Fees and How Parents Pay Them. 

Terms and conditions

Report purchases are non-refundable. We recommend you read the content pages or index first where available.
All fees are fully inclusive of postage costs where applicable. Hard copies of reports are dispatched by Royal Mail first class post within one week of receiving payment. Copying, forwarding or promotional use of licensed work is strictly prohibited and may result in legal action.

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It’s perhaps not wise to try to predict with any degree of certainty what the next decade will hold – for the world,  the nation,  the economy or even as relatively an insignificant  part of it  as the independent schools market. Some confidently forecast developments never seem to arrive (remember the paperless office?) while others catch us unawares. But the main message of this column is going to be about the invigorating effects of uncertainty, so here goes…..

Prediction 1: The market will be more dynamic and  volatile
All the economic and political indicators suggest that education in general and independent schools in particular will be very different by the end of this next decade. There will be much less clarity by 2020 about what constitutes an independent school: schools in the maintained sector will have differing but increasing degrees of independence of their own and the independent sector will have found ways of extending its own reach. The economic turmoil and its long-lasting fiscal consequences will also have a deep and lasting impact on parental expectations and behaviour.

This market dynamism and volatility will keep us on our toes. Few, if any, schools will be able to coast through. But in these conditions there will be significant opportunities for schools which are quick on their feet.

Prediction 2: It will be the decade of entrepreneurs
External forces, in particular, the effects of much tighter budgets in the public sector, will create opportunities for independent schools to be more entrepreneurial. Schools which are prepared to add to or amend what they offer – provide access courses, top-up activities, open new style schools, even be involved with free schools – will be able to take these opportunities.

In a time of recession, this may seem unlikely but I expect to see increased interest in the independent sector from entrepreneurs and investors. Why?

The basic impetus which drives people to independent schools has not diminished. If anything, surveys show that it is increasing. There are still plenty of companies and high net worth families and individuals who are showing an interest in the sector and the desire to invest will not go away. There are likely to be more opportunities because a cash-strapped government will be forced to turn to private suppliers to deliver services, including education.

A new generation of entrepreneurs / investment  capital will enter the sector. At least one of the existing chains of schools will be put up for sale. New chains will enter or be created, at least one of which will be run by a well-known charity school or group.*

Prediction 3: What we think of as a school will change
The mtmconsulting Independent Sector Report 2010 predicts that new and innovative educational businesses beyond what we think of as traditional schooling could soon be established. The next decade may see the start of schools maximising their income by diversifying their services: their “pupils” may include young people attending a whole variety of top-up courses and activities as well as their full-time roll. Holiday and weekend courses could become a commonplace as the supply dries up elsewhere.

What people think of as 'a school' in the future may change

Prediction 4: The sector will fragment
In the next few years, as the nation picks up the tab for the credit crunch and the recession, some families will be hit hard and will struggle to invest in their children’s education. But we have been here before: sound school business strategies and realistic retrenchment should steady the ship.

But the sector will fragment further. The independent sector is not an homogeneous entity and the gap will widen between the big-name brand schools, both boarding and day, who will continue to attract the wealthiest parents, and mid-sized/mid-range.  Some of us predicted this when we did the first sector scenario planning exercise more than a decade ago.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that smaller schools will struggle to survive, but they will need to differentiate themselves clearly in their own markets. Every school has different opportunities to take and different threats to manage.

Prediction 5: The decade will be green
Environmental pressures on independent school business leaders will increase rapidly – especially from the Government, partly to comply with global climate change obligations and, almost certainly, to generate tax income too. But the pressure will also come from increasingly environmentally-aware parents and, especially, from your pupils. It’s their future and they care about it.

Prediction 6: Parents will become more demanding
It’s an acknowledged business nostrum that when people purchase products or services that take a higher percentage of their disposable income they become more discriminating about the quality. There is no doubt that, even with better cost control, school fees will take more disposable income, so I am sure that parents will become even more demanding . They will expect and demand consistent quality of provision – and that means, amongst other things, that heads really will really have to do something about weak teaching and teachers.

Prediction 7: Good school communications will be critical
All schools’ communications activities will have to work more effectively both internally and externally. Internally, to reduce the incidence of “switching” (because there’s no doubt that there will be more mix-and-match in the next 10 years); externally, to emphasise differentiation (because as we see the establishment of new types of state and independent schools, this will be vital for existing independent schools).

Schools will certainly have to communicate better with their pupils as consumerism in education develops, and schools will have to anticipate, manage, and take advantage of the new communication technology: yesterday it was Facebook, now it’s Twitter, what comes next? Better use of technology will enhance opportunities for communication within the school.

And digital technology will take over marketing in schools as never before.

Finally…….

Of course, we have to get through the next couple of years, when the focus will be on managing the school as well as possible to provide a firm base for future investment and development. But 2012 will see an upswing in optimism, not least because of the London Olympics, and more opportunities will emerge as the decade unfolds.

The adjustments that the sector may have to make may well seem alien to some education professionals. But we must learn from successful business and industry where they are acutely aware of the need for new and different products for the next ten years as demands change. Schools may have to change what they offer just as radically as, for example, the motor industry is changing to meet the demand for environmentally efficient cars for the future.

For a frank and informal discussion about how mtm will help your school meet the challenges and embrace the opportunities of the future, please contact mtmconsulting.

*The School Transfer Company has been going for over 25 years and has sold countless schools, sixth form and international colleges and educational businesses of all kinds. Uniquely, their founders own and run a school themselves. The same five people have worked together for many years. They advise both buyers and sellers. STC are discreet, well-connected and effective. mtm are happy to recommend them: www.schooltransfer.co.uk.

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This issue provides a great range of content and debate related to school business strategies, school marketing and promotion, the future of the independent schools sector and our forthcoming education conferences.

Content includes:

Nigel Richardson, former Headmaster of the Perse School asking “Guarding the gold-standard, or cutting coats to our cloth: Does it have to be a choice?” Nigel explores the range of options faced by school business leaders in the current environment, suggesting “our schools have to be seen to offer a real and better alternative to the maintained sector, without reinforcing an image of elitism and social exclusiveness”. His article includes a ‘toolkit’ for a school wanting to control its own future rather being subject to external events.

Melanie Tucker, Principal mtmconsulting sticks her neck out and makes some bold predictions about the independent schools’ market place over the coming decade. Melanie makes 7 core suggestions, including the idea that our traditional notion of a ‘school’ will change dramatically: “the next decade”, she writes, “may see the start of schools maximising their income by diversifying their services: their pupils may include young people attending a whole variety of top-up courses and activities as well as their full-time roll. Holiday and weekend courses could become a commonplace as the supply dries up elsewhere.”

Joe Faulkner, mtm Schools Marketing Consultant returns to practical educational marketing advice, with five tips to help schools draw parents in to visit from the very first phone call. “Even modest school fees”, suggests Joe, “could easily relieve a parent of £150,000 over the course of a child’s school career. Your telephone technique should show how much your school recognises the scale of this potential investment. The respect you show for prospective parents will reap its own rewards”.

Other items include our favourite quotes selection (with our favourite soundbites from all sources including Steve Jobs of Apple alongside Andrew Grant, Head of St Albans School and HMC Chairman), details of mtm’s strategic away-day planning services, and two forthcoming mtm events: our annual strategy conference on Tuesday 14th September and a schools’ marketing event with Wellington College on Thursday 29th April.

All newsletters should have been delivered by Monday 1st February. To request additional or back copies, or discuss our schools marketing and educational consultancy services please contact us.

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mtm Schools Consultant Joe Faulkner and Principal Melanie Tucker are attending the conference.

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mtmconsulting’s Principal, Melanie Tucker writes about the implications of the recession on independent school business strategies, and how outstanding educational marketing and effective school and college cost-management are essential if school and college business leaders are to effectively lead their group through the next decade.

A new road map of the likely development of independent schools in the UK has just been provided by mtmconsulting.

The Independent Sector Report 2010, mtmconsulting’s second overview of the health of a sector now worth £7billion annually, predicts that independent schools and colleges will bounce back strongly from the current recession.

A significant increase in independent school pupil numbers from 2012 onwards will be boosted by a parental reaction to unrest and disruption in the state sector, brought on by the consequences of the likely cuts in public expenditure which any incoming Government is bound to make.

It also forecasts a variety of opportunities for flexible and innovative schools as the educational landscape changes and the distinction between state and private sectors is further blurred.

But the report gives a sharp warning that further recovery will be imperilled if the sector fails to address the vital issue of affordability. Unless schools control their costs more effectively and moderate their fee demands, the report predicts a lengthy period of steady decline in numbers from 2015 onwards.

The report, like its 2007 predecessor, has been compiled by Gavin Humphries, an experienced business analyst. He writes: “Affordability may be falling but if this can be reversed the potential market for independent schools is very large. We put the figure … at more than two million pupils. But to achieve this, schools must restrain the continuing growth in fees by tackling their finances.”

The 160-page report has seven main sections, supplemented by profiles of significant developments in schools and school groups and an analysis of regional trends. The sections are:

• Pupil trends: The target market for independent schools is growing fast, says the report, as the professional and managerial classes expand. But independent schools’ rolls have not kept pace with this expansion, largely because they have failed to control their costs and have become progressively more unaffordable. Without action to reverse this trend, independent school numbers could eventually start to decline by 0.5% per year.

• Financial trends: Administration and premises costs have been rising fast but teaching costs “appear to be out of control,” says the report. “Because teacher numbers have grown so much faster than pupil numbers, since 1981 the number of pupils per teacher has fallen by a third from 12.6 to 8.3 (with a fall of 4% in 2009 alone). The net effect has been to put teaching costs up by 50%. It would be hard to argue that the quality of education in schools had improved by an equivalent 50% over the same period; their productivity has demonstrably not.” One result is a large swathe of schools failing to achieve reasonable surpluses, which will be vulnerable to the recession.

• Structural trends: until the current recession, the total number of independent schools in the UK was increasing. Against a relatively static total number of pupils, this meant that the average size of school started to decline. The need to seek economies of scale and to minimise costs per pupil will see this trend reversed, says the report, with schools growing larger and more of them joining or being subsumed in groups and alliances.

• Segment trends: The market for independent education is polarising between ‘premier league’ schools and niche schools, the report concludes. There are ever-fewer opportunities for good but medium-sized, all-round schools. Premier league schools are those that have established themselves in a pre-eminent position in either the boarding or academic market. Niche schools are those that have carefully defined their educational market and present themselves as being the best in their chosen field. Perhaps the most established niche is for children with special educational needs such as dyslexia.

• Political trends: A Conservative victory in 2010 will represent a significant new challenge for the independent sector, says the report. Their plans for privately-provided, but free, schools will both drive up standards in the state sector generally and attract pupils away from independent schools.

• Forecasts to 2020: Taking the effects of the recession, demographic changes, unrest in the state sector and declining affordability of independent schools, the report forecasts a strong but short recovery in numbers in the early years of the next decade, followed by a protracted period of decline. It stresses, however, that this forecast is based on the assumption that schools fail to control their costs.

• Scenarios to 2030: The report suggests some longer term scenarios, produced by the pressures of limited funds, increased regulation and higher parental expectations. These will have an impact on both sectors and will change the face of education. As well as producing new challenges, says the report: “It will mean new ways of doing things in state education – and we think that this is the real opportunity for independent schools. This is the chance to win 30% or more of pupils.

“To seize these opportunities schools will need vision and energy. But this abounds in a sector that has managed to stay resolutely ahead of anything thrown at it so far.”

For more information on the mtmconsulting Independent Education Sector Report 2010, which is essential reading for all schools and college business leaders, marketing professionals or educational businesses (and is used for our own management consulting for schools) please click here.

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The seminar, which takes mtmconsulting’s groundbreaking publication Independent Education Sector Report 2010 as its starting point, will explore the implications of recession, falling affordability, strains on public sector spending and government policy on education businesses. The event is aimed at independent school and college heads, bursars, marketing managers and governors.

Presentations will be given by mtm’s principal, Melanie Tucker; our head of school research and strategy, Dick Davison; the former head of The Perse School and HMC Chair Nigel Richardson; and AGBIS training and membership secretary, Nigel Noble.

Talks will focus on:

• Demographic, political and financial change in the UK over the next decade and how these will affect school business strategies
• Changes inside the classroom and how schools and colleges should manage these
• School business strategies and education cost management
• How school marketing and sales techniques can help maintain high levels of pupil recruitment

Click here for more details

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