In this article taken from the latest of mtm’s School Matters newsletters, our principal and founder, Melanie Tucker, sticks her neck out and makes some bold predictions for the future of independent schools, including schools marketing trends, educational organisation and the value of outstanding communications with parents, pupils and staff.
It’s perhaps not wise to try to predict with any degree of certainty what the next decade will hold – for the world, the nation, the economy or even as relatively an insignificant part of it as the independent schools market. Some confidently forecast developments never seem to arrive (remember the paperless office?) while others catch us unawares. But the main message of this column is going to be about the invigorating effects of uncertainty, so here goes…..
Prediction 1: The market will be more dynamic and volatile
All the economic and political indicators suggest that education in general and independent schools in particular will be very different by the end of this next decade. There will be much less clarity by 2020 about what constitutes an independent school: schools in the maintained sector will have differing but increasing degrees of independence of their own and the independent sector will have found ways of extending its own reach. The economic turmoil and its long-lasting fiscal consequences will also have a deep and lasting impact on parental expectations and behaviour.
This market dynamism and volatility will keep us on our toes. Few, if any, schools will be able to coast through. But in these conditions there will be significant opportunities for schools which are quick on their feet.
Prediction 2: It will be the decade of entrepreneurs
External forces, in particular, the effects of much tighter budgets in the public sector, will create opportunities for independent schools to be more entrepreneurial. Schools which are prepared to add to or amend what they offer – provide access courses, top-up activities, open new style schools, even be involved with free schools – will be able to take these opportunities.
In a time of recession, this may seem unlikely but I expect to see increased interest in the independent sector from entrepreneurs and investors. Why?
The basic impetus which drives people to independent schools has not diminished. If anything, surveys show that it is increasing. There are still plenty of companies and high net worth families and individuals who are showing an interest in the sector and the desire to invest will not go away. There are likely to be more opportunities because a cash-strapped government will be forced to turn to private suppliers to deliver services, including education.
A new generation of entrepreneurs / investment capital will enter the sector. At least one of the existing chains of schools will be put up for sale. New chains will enter or be created, at least one of which will be run by a well-known charity school or group.
Prediction 3: What we think of as a school will change
The mtmconsulting Independent Sector Report 2010 predicts that new and innovative educational businesses beyond what we think of as traditional schooling could soon be established. The next decade may see the start of schools maximising their income by diversifying their services: their “pupils” may include young people attending a whole variety of top-up courses and activities as well as their full-time roll. Holiday and weekend courses could become a commonplace as the supply dries up elsewhere.
What people think of as 'a school' in the future may change
Prediction 4: The sector will fragment
In the next few years, as the nation picks up the tab for the credit crunch and the recession, some families will be hit hard and will struggle to invest in their children’s education. But we have been here before: sound school business strategies and realistic retrenchment should steady the ship.
But the sector will fragment further. The independent sector is not an homogeneous entity and the gap will widen between the big-name brand schools, both boarding and day, who will continue to attract the wealthiest parents, and mid-sized/mid-range. Some of us predicted this when we did the first sector scenario planning exercise more than a decade ago.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that smaller schools will struggle to survive, but they will need to differentiate themselves clearly in their own markets. Every school has different opportunities to take and different threats to manage.
Prediction 5: The decade will be green
Environmental pressures on independent school business leaders will increase rapidly – especially from the Government, partly to comply with global climate change obligations and, almost certainly, to generate tax income too. But the pressure will also come from increasingly environmentally-aware parents and, especially, from your pupils. It’s their future and they care about it.
Prediction 6: Parents will become more demanding
It’s an acknowledged business nostrum that when people purchase products or services that take a higher percentage of their disposable income they become more discriminating about the quality. There is no doubt that, even with better cost control, school fees will take more disposable income, so I am sure that parents will become even more demanding . They will expect and demand consistent quality of provision – and that means, amongst other things, that heads really will really have to do something about weak teaching and teachers.
Prediction 7: Good school communications will be critical
All schools’ communications activities will have to work more effectively both internally and externally. Internally, to reduce the incidence of “switching” (because there’s no doubt that there will be more mix-and-match in the next 10 years); externally, to emphasise differentiation (because as we see the establishment of new types of state and independent schools, this will be vital for existing independent schools).
Schools will certainly have to communicate better with their pupils as consumerism in education develops, and schools will have to anticipate, manage, and take advantage of the new communication technology: yesterday it was Facebook, now it’s Twitter, what comes next? Better use of technology will enhance opportunities for communication within the school.
And digital technology will take over marketing in schools as never before.
Finally…….
Of course, we have to get through the next couple of years, when the focus will be on managing the school as well as possible to provide a firm base for future investment and development. But 2012 will see an upswing in optimism, not least because of the London Olympics, and more opportunities will emerge as the decade unfolds.
The adjustments that the sector may have to make may well seem alien to some education professionals. But we must learn from successful business and industry where they are acutely aware of the need for new and different products for the next ten years as demands change. Schools may have to change what they offer just as radically as, for example, the motor industry is changing to meet the demand for environmentally efficient cars for the future.
For a frank and informal discussion about how mtm will help your school meet the challenges and embrace the opportunities of the future, please contact mtmconsulting.
