A modern baby boom has been cited in yesterday’s Telegraph as factors leading to a ‘critical’ shortage of primary school places in some areas of England and Wales. We ask if the real issue is more a question of insufficient planning.   

The article, by the paper’s Education Editor Graeme Paton, details an internal Labour party report suggesting that at least 60,000 additional primary places are required this autumn alone, while Professor Smithers of Buckingham University indicates that it is “highly probable” that the number of children educated in classes of over 30 pupils would exceed 500,000 next year.

What, perhaps, is most startling about this shortage of places is the apparent lack of planning, either at Local Authority or Central Government level. As rightly pointed out by Prof Smithers, children entering primary schools this September will be four years old, meaning that authorities have had at least four years to cater for their primary education.

And planning should have  been in place long before this. In almost every commercial market, demographic trends and long term planning for population change forms a crucial part of development strategies. Indeed mtmconsulting’s own ‘Mandarin’ research for schools provides scientific and robust projections for population change, by region, for the next ten years.

Further indicating a lack of proper foresight are figures from the Office for National Statistics, which clearly show that birth-rates for England and Wales have been increasing since as early as 2001, when the rate was as low as 595k.

Birthrates have increased since 2001 - but not so rapidly that school planners should have been caught out

 In 2008 this figure is close to 709k – a significant turnaround, but hardly so fast as to catch anyone unawares (click chart to  enlarge).

In our work, we regularly support clients in understanding their catchment area, likely demand and population changes in the child population. Indeed, for independent schools we can look further than this, identifying numbers of households within a 15 minute or 30 minute drivetime of a school, who have both school-age children and household income above a certain threshold. Similar analysis is carried out by supermarkets, housing developers, shopping and leisure centre planners and a multitude of other commercial groups.

We wonder if a deeper level of analysis within Local Authority and Government education planning departments should not be taking place.  

For more details about our research, strategy and marketing services for education, please contact mtm.

Related posts:

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2. Private need not be a middle-class preserve: marketing independent schools
3. Grammar schools attract 25% more pupils than in 1997

However, the Independent Schools Council’s (ISC) response, arguing that the Sutton Trust’s report was “ based on out of date, incomplete and mismatched data”, gives rise to a broader question: how trustworthy is research into ‘the facts’?

The IEPR’s report found that “schools that charge higher fees… award a smaller proportion of the remissions in the form of bursaries”, and that “schools with a higher rank in The Times League Tables… tend to offer lower fee remissions”. Meanwhile, the ISC claims to have repeated the IEPR’s research using its own more recent data taken across a greater number of schools (ISC data was across 477 schools in comparison with the IEPR’s 348 sample schools), finding “no correlation between bursaries and a school’s ranking or revenue”.

This argument puts the observer  in something of a quandary: two well regarded research bodies, with two apparently sound methodologies, yet with two significantly different outcomes. Which is right? Which is more trustworthy?

It's important to use an independent and unbiased third-party for research in order to ensure rigour

It’s not a new problem, of course, as the range of jokes and one-liners on statistics proves this:

• “90% of all statistics are made up on the spot”
• “Death is fatal in 9 of 10 cases”
• “70% of people prefer good things to bad things”

etc.

Given that the Sutton Trust’s website claims its main objective is to ”improve educational opportunities for young people from non-privileged backgrounds and increase social mobility”, while a core strategic aim for the ISC is “to promote the independent schools sector”. The interests of each party are clear and while we stress again the calibre of work from both, and that research was no doubt carried out objectively, the findings of each group are startlingly aligned with these interests.

So what should be done? How can people know that when commissioning their own research for schools and colleges that the results will be unbiased, accurate and truly reflective of their situation.

As a truly independent research, marketing and strategic consultancy for schools and colleges, mtm’s work is always accurate and rigorous. We have developed our research work over 25 years, and now offer a broad range of school research services, including our Mandarin market and catchment area analysis, parent surveys and interviews, street and door to door services, and mystery shopper exercises. Meanwhile our research publications, including the Independent Education Sector Report, the Missing Million report, Schools Marketing Survey, and School Fees Payment Survey cover the whole of the UK schools market and are carried out with the same rigour and expertise.

To discuss our work and how we might be able to support you, please contact mtm.

Related posts:

1. Independent school research shows fees top £30k for the first time
2. Blog post – Independent schools offer refuge from the storm in state education
3. Who buys independent education?

The date of the September Proprietorial Schools’ Forum event – the latest in our series of half day seminar and discussion events for owners and heads of proprietorial schools, is confirmed as 13th September.

The draft programme for this event is as follows:

0930 – Coffee and Registration

0945 – The Landscape After the General Election – Opportunities and Threats

1025 – Succession Planning

1105 – Coffee Break

1120 – Marketing – the next ten years

1200 – Proprietors’ Discussion Forum

1245 – Drinks, buffet lunch, networking

1430 – Close

The Proprietorial Schools’ Forum has proved highly popular since its inception in September 2008. The Forum was established in response to demand for an event at which private owners of schools could meet to discuss exclusively the issues which concern them.   

The fee for the forum is £55. This includes drinks and buffet lunch. For more details about the event, and to book a place, please contact mtm.

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Professor Tooley made these claims speaking at last weekend’s Festival of Education at Wellington. He suggested that costs could be cut by employing young but enthusiastic teachers, increasing use of technology to reduce staffing costs, increasing class sizes and even allowing commercial sponsorship of facilities, “such as soap companies advertising in school toilets”.

When put in context alongside the government’s significant reduction of investment in the Building Schools for the Future, and high profile political campaigning for independent free schools and increased numbers of schools converting to academy status, the prospect of a school group offering truly independent education at this low price is likely to appeal to many.

However, the realities of the matter may be somewhat different, particularly when focussing on the idea that larger classes could provide an opportunity to reduce fees, with the implicit  notion that these larger classes would not spark a decline in the attractiveness of such schools.     

This sits well alongside research from McKinsey & co published in How the World’s Best Performing School Systems come out on Top (2008), which shows clear evidence that small classes make very little difference to pupil attainment, especially compared to the seismic difference that pedagogy makes: “The quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers”, writes the report.

Despite this, though, there can be little  doubt that class sizes are important to parents – the buyers who would need to be convinced of Professor Tooley’s model. At mtm we regularly undertake parental satisfaction surveys for our clients examining, amongst other things, reasons why parents chose that school. The most recent 55 surveys of independent school buyers shows that ‘small class sizes’ are the top influencer over parental decision making (albeit in equal first place with ‘ethos’ and ‘quality of teaching’).

Our research shows class size is among the most important factors in choosing a school for parents

So what does this mean? There is a clear need for schools to cut costs if they are to retain parents, many of whom are concerned about their ability to continue paying rapidly rising fees. There is similarly little doubt that a higher pupil : teacher ratio would go some significant way towards cutting such costs. But if doing so alienates your existing buyers, or they feel that value for money is declining, might it be a risk too far?  

This is where a sound and integrated research, communications and school marketing strategy comes in. Any new schools following such a low-cost model would first carefully assess the market place and quality of competition, both from independent and state education providers. Survey or street research should be undertaken to understand parental priorities, socio-economic analysis to understand the social make-up of the catchment area is key and, of course, clear and effective school marketing is a must…

mtm is the UK market leader in research, strategy and marketing for UK independent and state schools. To discuss how we may be able to support you, please contact mtm here.

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1. Private need not be a middle-class preserve: marketing independent schools
2. Private schools will have to raise class sizes, experts warn
3. Private school students ‘moving to the state’

A number of the report’s core findings relating to the UK independent schools market place are relatively well documented elsewhere, not least by mtm. These include tracking of “long-run decline” in the pupil-teacher ratio in the independent sector, and the growth of academies and free schools.

However, the report also flags up two trends relating to target markets that independent school educational strategies should take notice of.

1) Independent school fee increases have significantly outstripped income, even amongst the top earners.

The IFS research shows that “during the 1980s independent school fees grew rapidly… (but) top incomes amongst families with children grew by a similar amount”. The period from 1992 to 2008, however, is drastically different, with increases amongst top earners of around 35% compared with day school fee increases of 83% and boarding school fee increases of 65%.

This statistic provides some explanation for the observation that ”independent schools have failed to capitalise on long-term growth in their target market” (i.e. social classes 1&2), explored in the mtmconsulting Education Sector Report.  

2) “Children are at least three times more likely to attend a private school if one of their parents attended one”.  

School marketers should take note of this. While the Independent Schools Council commented in The Guardian, quite rightfully, that  this reflects a high level of satisfaction amongst buyers of independent education, it also suggests that independent school marketing is not engaging with ‘first-time buyers’.

School marketing strategies perhaps should thus be amended to appeal more strongly to this market place, through better understanding buyer priorities in school selection, the value of means-tested fees support and promotion activities to alert would-be buyers to their local independent school’s presence.

Anecdotal evidence has suggested that schools who have embarked on radio and television campaigns have been successful in enhancing recruitment from families new to the independent sector, and we might anticipate collaborative efforts from regional groups of schools to better alert first-time buyers to them.

mtmconsulting is the leader in marketing UK colleges and schools. We offer our clients world-class educational research, strategy and marketing advice. For details on how we might be able to support your school please contact mtm.

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The app, which will be available next week, is promoted as “making it easy for parents and the whole school community to keep up-to-date with the school’s ever changing activities, timetables and news.”

So is this likely to be the first app of many in the UK’s education sector? mtm strongly believe the answer to this is a fairly emphatic ’yes’. In our parental research, which includes bespoke online satisfaction surveys, telephone interviews with parents, non-buyers and future joiners, and focus groups with parents, we consistently find that communication between the school and its parents is a significant priority.

mtmconsulting helps schools with communications and e-marketing strategies

This appears to be symptomatic of shifting lifestyles in general, not just in education. With 24 hour news, live website feeds and mobile communications now the norm for most of us, parents of course want swift and easy access to up-to-the-minute information about their child’s school life. Indeed, we feel that this will be an increasingly crucial responsibility for schools’ marketing and communications staff. Twitter, Facebook, websites, apps, email and SMS contact are, more and more, replacing the conventional notes to parents stuffed into the bottom of pupils’ bags.

For many schools, this move towards e-marketing is a daunting prospect. This should not be the case. mtmconsulting has dedicated web-design services for schools and in-house e-marketing expertise to support schools’ communications and marketing teams. If you would like to have a discussion about how we may be able to help your school enhance parental communications, please contact mtm.

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However, the article goes on to note a number of key factors:

• Independent school attendance in the North has dropped by 300% more than in the South
• The numbers of youngest children entering independent schools has decreased severely – by over 5% for four-year-olds. If this decline is repeated in future, it could have significant effects on the health of the sector
• The decline in recruitment of UK pupils has been mitigated by rapid growth in the numbers of foreign pupils, which increased by over 8% in the last year

The article then goes on to look at the swiftly changing political context and the ’free schools’ model introduced by the Conservatives. Referring to mtmconsulting’s Independent Education Sector Report 2010, the article asserts that ” in areas with grammar schools, private pupil numbers were more than a third (34%) lower than other factors would predict. In other words, grammar schools were attracting parents who would otherwise have gone private…. Tory policies could act as a long-term drag on the private schools market.”  

Conversely, the cuts that seem inevitable in the maintained sector may provide some support for independent schools as ‘pushy parents’ scramble for alternatives to the plummeting standards that come as a result of these cuts. Independent schools may also use the post-recession period as an opportunity to reduce costs by cutting staff numbers: quoting Melanie Tucker of mtm, the article states that the fee-paying sector’s current pupil:teacher ratio is 8.3:1, “a ratio that the sector will find difficult to maintain”. mtm recommends schools may use this opportunity to increase the ratio to 10:1 without significantly compromising their offering.

Finally, the article suggests that the Tory plans for free schools may provide an opportunity for independent schools: “paying for education will be something people get used to in much the same way happened in health, Melanie Tucker is quoted as saying. “Even among those that can’t afford full-scale private fees, that could open up opportunities for companies that provide tuition or other supplementary education. That could be quite an exciting and dynamic thing that’s happening.”  

mtm is a business consultancy offering education strategy, parental research and school marketing services to the independent and maintained sectors. To discuss how we may be able to support your school, please contact mtm.

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2. mtm is featured in the Financial Times
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What impact might this have on the way state schools communicate and position their brands, ethos and values to prospective parents and pupils? mtm’s Schools Marketing Consultant Joe Faulkner explores the issue.

Gove’s move offers all schools the option to move toward academy status, and for the 2,600 state primary and secondary schools currently judged as outstanding an opportunity to fast-track this change in status. This could lead to a seismic shift in the dynamic of state education, the promise being that school leaders will be able to enjoy far greater freedom over how their schools are run and how children are taught.  

With this freedom, presumably, will come a greater degree of distinction between state schools. Amongst existing academies already we see expertise across a broad spectrum of subjects, which sits in stark contrast with the (to use an oft-coined phrase) ‘bog-standard comprehensive’.

As more schools become academies, we envisage a considerable increase in the level of competition for pupils. These schools’ funding models will continue to be based on a per pupil allowance, meaning that competition to attract pupils in areas with a choice of schools will be fierce. (It should be noted that Mr Gove used the concept of ‘choice’ for parents as a key message throughout the run up to this month’s election.)

With so many choices of baked bean marketing and differentiation is key. Are schools any different?

The logical conclusion from this increase in differentiation and competition to attract pupils is that we are likely to see a significant increase in schools’ marketing, communications and promotions activity. This is already evident in the independent schools sector, where marketing and admissions teams are often a core part of school administration and marketing and school research techniques are increasingly sophisticated. In the state sector, schools will increasingly need to illustrate their unique selling points and differentiators in order to maintain a consistent flow of pupils and funding.

Of course, choice for parents and pupils, and the option to choose schools that suit the individual can only be a good thing.

Clarifying individual schools’ brands and positioning, however, is a complex matter. mtmconsulting are specialists in marketing and communications for schools and UK leaders on branding and positioning in education. To discuss our services and how we might support your school, please contact mtm.

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The Daily Mail has reported that since 1997, under the labour government – a government opposed to academic selection – the number of children attending grammar schools has increased by 25%. The article reports that in this period “while no new grammars have been built, the country’s 164 selective schools have taken on new classrooms to accommodate extra pupils”.

The article goes on to state that  4.86% of secondary-aged pupils are now educated in grammars, an increase from 4.84% last year. In 1983 this figure was 3.1%

These figures suggest that an increasing number of parents are comfortable with academic selection,  but the impact of the success of grammar schools, where they exist, may have a negative impact on their fee-charging counterparts. Indeed, through our independent schools research showcased in the Independent Education Sector Report 2010, mtm looked at what effect grammar schools had over independent school rolls and found that, “in those authorities where there is at least some selection (amongst state secondary schools), independent schools account for 6.4% of pupils aged 11+”. This figure compares with 9.7% in authorities with no selection.

The upshot of this observation is clear: grammar schools attract pupils not only away from their non-selective state alternatives, but also from independent senior options. (More details on this trend can be found in the article ‘Gove strives for ‘free’ schools but what impact on independents?’) However, it is notable that the presence of grammar schools in turn may benefit independent prep and junior providers.

A recent trend that has become increasingly apparent is that parents are picking and switching between state and independent sectors at a higher level, and seemingly with greater ease, than ever before (see: Parents pick and switch between sectors: What can school business strategies do?) It is therefore suggested that with an increasing demand for places at grammar schools, high performing independent prep schools will play a pivotal role, with shrewd parents enrolling their children into such schools in order to ensure a sound outcome at 11+ examinations.

mtm is the leading authority on education strategy, schools marketing and research for schools. To discuss how are services might help your school to enhance its positioning, please contact mtm.

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2. mtm is featured on TimesOnline
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Three years ago, mtmconsulting published the first-ever survey of how parents pay school fees. Some 900 parents from 14 schools took part. Until then, very little reliable, detailed and up-to-date information about how parents actually fund the cost of their children’s education had been available.

The mtm School Fees Payment Survey 2007 found that:

• Two thirds were two-income households;
• One family in six devoted more than 40% of their income to paying fees;
• Three quarters had reduced spending in other areas to afford fees;
• One in six had an extra job or did extra overtime to afford fees;
• About a third used investments and savings to pay fees – a fifth of these using more than 60% of their savings;
• Two thirds of parents had made no advance financial plans;
• Only 13% had any form of external help with fees – mostly from relatives;
• Fewer than two-thirds were confident that they would continue to be able to afford fees to the end of their children’s education.

mtmconsulting plans to repeat and extend the research in 2010 and is now looking for partner schools

Why a new survey?

• Economic circumstances have changed radically since 2007;
• Schools need more than ever to understand the financial pressures on parents;
• A more robust study is needed: the 2007 sample size was small;
• mtmconsulting’s online survey technology has improved;
• No other agency is undertaking this vital research.

How will the new survey be conducted?

• With an online questionnaire, on a secure web page, using the same technology as we use for school parent surveys;
• Participating schools will invite parents to participate anonymously, preferably by email, using a standard format drafted by mtmconsulting;
• No personal data will be required by mtmconsulting from schools;
• No personal data will be collected in the questionnaire which could identify any individual family;
• Each school’s parents will have a different logon, permitting a school-by-school benchmarked analysis, as well as an aggregate report.

All schools that take part in the survey will receive a copy of the full final report; analysis of responses from their own parents, benchmarked against the national results (provided sufficient parents participate); a clearer understanding of how financially robust their own market is; an indication of parental preferences for payment methods; and credit with parents for showing sensitivity to family financial pressures.

If you would like more information or to discuss your school’s participation in this exciting and vital research project please contact mtm.

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2. mtmconsulting / HTC School Fees Payment Survey 2007
3. Independent school research shows fees top £30k for the first time