from The Times, 15th September 2009
The mtmconsulting Independent Education Sector Report 2010 has warned that, in contrast with many views, a Conservative government being voted in at the next general election may create significant challenges for independent schools, as free, independent state schools are established.
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Independent schools face the twin challenges of the recession and a Conservative government, a report has warned.
According to leading education consultants, independent schools will have to cut their fees to survive the economic downturn and may have to increase class sizes, cut back on specialist subjects and facilities and even use online textbooks.
A Conservative victory in next year’s election would also represent a significant challenge, the report says. The party plans to create free private schools, which would directly compete with independent schools for pupils, the report says.
However, the report offers some good news for independent schools from 2012 onwards. It predicts that cut-backs in public expenditure could benefit fee-charging schools, as parents become dissatisfied with disruption and unrest at state schools.
The report, by mtmconsulting, says that a Conservative Government would do nothing to benefit independent schools directly. “Conservative education spokesmen have been at pains to distance the party from any pledge to subsidise placements in independent schools,” it says “Rather, the Conservative Party’s education policy is about ‘placing rocket-boosters under the city academy programme’, and forcing two additional changes in state education: a rapid improvement in state school standards; and removal of the state monopoly on education by allowing new types of school to be created.”
To survive, independent schools could be forced to create federations, to seek economies of scale and minimise costs. The report predicts greater polarisation between “premier league” schools and “niche” schools, with fewer opportunities for medium-sized, all-round schools.
The report also points out that rising construction costs and an “arms race” between schools for bigger and better facilities has put pressure on budgets. “Our survey respondents believe that capital expenditure, on academic, sports, theatre and other facilities, will decline from current levels in most schools over the next 20 years.”
Independent schools have had a long-term rise in the number of pupils, the report says, because of a drive for excellence, clear values, discipline, pastoral care, academic rigour and smaller class sizes. “Tight public spending after the next election could result in public sector unrest and a boost to independent school rolls as happened during the 1980s,” it says.
But the current “period of austerity” could see pupil rolls decline by 3.2 per cent, and by one per cent a year from 2017 if issues are not resolved.
There are a number of trends, above and beyond the recession, that could threaten many independent schools, the report says, although further recovery will be “imperilled” if the sector fails to address affordability.
“The continuing trend, over many years, is that independent school fees have become less affordable in comparison with average earnings.
“After an abnormally large fee rise of nearly 10 per cent in 2003, school fees have grown by around six per cent each year since then, almost double the annual increase in managerial and professional earnings.
“In the last five years, school fees have risen by 33 per cent, compared to an 18 per cent rise in the earnings of the target market. There are many factors that have mitigated this falling affordability (e.g. dual income households, delayed childbirth and grandparents’ wealth) but these cannot continue forever.
“There are also several new trends that are increasing unaffordability (e.g. falling disposable income, increasing calls on income and greater longevity). Our analysis of affordability showed that it is unlikely that schools, on average, will be able to continue raising fees by some per cent each year.”
The report says that teaching salaries are a major expense. Since 1981 the number of pupils per teacher has fallen by a third from 12.6 to 8.3. The net effect has been to put teaching costs up by 50 per cent.
“It would be hard to argue that the quality of education in schools had improved by an equivalent 50 per cent over the same period; their productivity has demonstrably not. We expect that teaching costs will have to be reduced in the coming years,” it says.
“The most common method is predicted to be by increasing the pupil/teacher ratio. Half of schools, and prep schools in particular, are expected to do this over the next 20 years, according to our survey, for example, by increasing class sizes and/or by cutting the number of specialist subjects offered.”
